An Essay in Times of the Virus
London 1606
The first slide of a large and remarkable presentation by Deutsche Bank (“Maximum Containment, Social Distancing & the Economics of Stoppage”, March 2020) begins with a picture of William Shakespeare. London was 1606 - once again – confronted with a plague. According to the instructions of the then king - James I - the London theatres had to close as soon as the number of deaths exceeded 40 within a week. 1606 the London theatres had to close for several months and Shakespeare was quickly occupied with "to be or not to be" questions from his theatre group "Kings Men". Under the pressure of the plague, he eventually had to give up his troupe for a while (it is not clear how many of his actors have succumbed to the plague). Shakespeare was freed from the leadership duties of his SME and was so able to devote himself 100 percent to his talent: writing.
In 1606 he probably had the most creative phase of his life and wrote three of his best pieces: King Lear, Macbeth and Antony and Cleopatra. He must have written these pieces during his “lockdown” phase.
The bubonic plague, which raged in Europe approximately 40 years before 1606 (around 1564), also terrorized John and Mary. They had already lost their older two children to the plague. Now they wanted to save the life of their three-month-old son. They were able to lock themselves in their house completely in time and so John and Mary Shakespeare survived the epidemic. The rescued baby was called William.
The theatres in London are closed today. Broadway in New York as well as the Schauspielhaus in Zurich. These theatres will open their doors again sometime. Then - I am convinced - the pieces played will have been written in today's quarantine. We can look forward to them.
Leadership
Experts and so-called experts are currently flooding social networks and the media. In the thicket of news, videos, special programs, articles, and "postings" it is not easy to separate the "fake news" from the "real" news. The loud positioning of the American president and the constant volatility of his opinions are remarkable. It is amazing that so few people dare to correct his obvious false statements.
The chaff separates from the wheat
This is to be observed very clearly these days. Our Federal Council and our administration gave us leadership lessons that cannot be found in the best management books. We - the people – are taken along. The government communicates openly and steadily. Difficult decisions are made quickly. We are proud of our country. But we are all also asked to take on responsibility: “Stay at home!”.
Our government exemplifies leadership.
Will this charisma and leadership be felt in 2021 and later? When the pressure and fear of the "virus" cease, will we still be inspired and guided by our government? Will we then tackle other crucial questions like "Saving the Planet" with the same strength and stamina?
Today we are all challenged.
Viruses
In the meantime, we have all noticed it: COVID 19 knows no limits. But we have still decided to close our borders. During my morning runs along the Swiss French border, I discover concrete blocks at every little border crossing. So far, I only knew these barriers from the World War II films. Tourists are pushed back everywhere and brought back home at the last minute. Asians are violently attacked in London. Outpatient ambulances are thrown at stones in Andalusia because they deliver patients to hospitals that are intended for the "locals". The virus has even triggered a difficult generational discussion. Voices in our country are already loudly criticizing why they have allowed production of certain medicines to be moved to China or India.
Somehow you get the impression that medieval rituals could prevail. Scary. We all hide in our snail shells
And how will it be in 2021? It is feared that the nationalist forces will overrun society and the economy. The virus is already being stylized as a welcome anti-globalization devil. Nationalist slogans like “America First” could spread as rapidly as COVID 19 in our world. Driven by national selfishness, we would want to defend our snail shells à tout prix. Trade would inevitably collapse. The resulting economic damage cannot be calculated at all. Such large numbers are not understandable, they were never “a possibility in the playbook”. Thrown back to our Middle Ages, we would generate immeasurable damage socially and culturally.
But COVID 19 has another property: the virus hits everyone. Whether rich or poor. Whether Asia or the Anglo-Saxon world. Prime Minister or not. Whether known or not. Our economy, now completely interwoven, has received a tremendous shock. We all hope that the massive interventions by states and central banks could somewhat mitigate the damage. We hope. Somehow our economic and social system is hit in the heart.
We are in an even playing field, at the beginning of a new game, so to speak. That is new. The cards will therefore be redistributed, and a new house of cards created
If the correct conclusions are drawn and our excesses in the globalized world, but also in our social expectations regarding the role of the state, are cut back, then COVID19 is an opportunity. Then the enormous commitment of thousands of workers in hospitals, logistics and many other areas of our society will have paid off. These women and men show us every day what energy is released when it comes to saving lives.
I mean: COVID 19 will allow us to release forces from an "even playing field" for a "restart". This restart should give us all new opportunities. As individuals, in the definition of the role of the state, in the responsibility of the economy and - crucially - in our responsibility towards our planet earth.
The winners?
Soberly speaking, there are a few industrial sectors that are already emerging as winners of the pandemic crisis. Well-managed pharmaceutical companies and the healthcare sector in general should be among the clear winners. Rightly so because we all hope for the drugs against the virus! I think that sectors such as telecommunications and software will also be in high demand, especially in times of the “home office”. Companies that are active in the environmental sector will probably also be sought. Environmental concern will increase, particularly in times of uncertainty. The food industry and the closely related segments are likely to remain solid.
And the others? Many fresh valuation questions are likely to be raised anew: Which industries are “vital”? Which values are then "re-rated"? Certain industry segments will undoubtedly have to dress-up warmly: the automotive industry, tourism, real estate, finance and, in general, also many "vital" industries, at least in the short term.
I am confident for our SMEs. Today they were hit the fastest and most brutally. Sales and liquidity collapsed completely from one day to the next. The innovative and flexible SMEs will also be the first to find out about the crisis. They will adapt and offer new much needed services. Today COVID 19 demands one thing: speed in research for new drugs, new ventilators must be produced subito, new treatment places must be organized immediately. In summary: Speed and creativity in the research and development of medicines and machines as well as in the distribution of vital goods and services are in demand and crucial.
Cumbersome and bureaucratic processes are finally OUT
The state has intervened. We are (mostly) happy about it. A functioning healthcare system is literally lifesaving. At the same time, the existence of thousands of companies and workers depends on the state's ventilator. We are glad that there is one. How long?
Will we fall asleep in the comfort of interest-free financing? Paradise or nightmare? The moment comes when we will have to detach ourselves from the state's ventilator. Hopefully soon!
Home Office
I have spent many weeks mostly on a PC in video conferences. In doing so, I discovered the striking differences between the various video conference providers ... "Teams", "zoom", "Skype" ... and also played with new productivity tools. The telephone and video conferences have mutated into socially connecting instruments. We work differently. Partly better and more productive because we are not limited by unnecessary commuting times. However, there is a lack of interpersonal exchange.
The 'barn smell' is missing in the video conference
And yes, I have become a master in hand washing, but the video conference does not offer me the strength and warmth (or weakness and cold) of a handshake.
And still the «home office» working model could survive COVID 19. Associated with this, one can imagine the development or acceleration of new “light business models”. Business models that are based on competence and do not need to cope with restrictive hierarchical structures. Networked know-how should exceed the strength of even the largest corporations and thus lead to meaningful services. AI (Artificial Intelligence) will gain in importance, find new applications on an ongoing basis - hopefully less to control us - and thus take over most physical activities. Unnecessary CO2 production due to the daily back and forth will also be eliminated. We would have taken a huge first step against global warming. From this you can imagine a fantastic improvement in our productivity. You will ask yourself: what for? Why not to expand our social and cultural competence.
Everything utopia? Perhaps. But certainly, a serious option in times of COVID 19. Shakespeare wrote his best works in times of the plague.
And we experience in these times of 'lockdowns' that everything is possible
An opportunity for our planet earth?
The satellite images over Wuhan, Beijing or northern Italy speak for themselves. The water in the canals of Venice has become transparent. Such an idea 30 days ago would have been an absolute utopia. Of course, with these pictures we only scratch the surface of the challenge of saving our planet.
But the pictures still show that change is possible.
The reality is likely to be more complex. Now we are all concerned about the war against COVID 19. The economy should not be allowed to go under completely. These are the current priorities. Irrespective of climate conditions. The prices for CO2 certificates have plummeted in the past few weeks as a direct result of the COVID 19 crisis. The majority of CO2 certificate trading has come to a standstill. At the same time, oil prices have also dropped dramatically. Where is the climate impact here?
In any case, the weaknesses of our current climate instruments have been brutally exposed.
And still: I dare to argue that COVID 19 represents a tremendous opportunity. On the one hand, the virus triggered existential fears worldwide and, on the other hand, it released enormous forces in our society. We all fight against it. Even if we only sit at home.
Today we are aware of the fragility of our system. We are all directly or indirectly affected by the virus. This awareness will also project onto the climate change challenges. Climate warming affects us all. At least theoretically, we have the intelligence and strength to fight it.
In this respect, COVID 19 is a welcome, strong WAKE UP CALL for all of us.
